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safe bet

Started by legends71 - August 28, 2014


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#16 Eugene


470 Posts

2014-09-01 08:44

#553 legends71:
#552 Eugene:

I'd recommend to use flat betting on the suggested bets (A, B, C, D). Stake amount = bankroll / expected number of bets. Next week we expect around 65 bets, so recommended Stake is 1000 / 65 = 15 euro.

ok, i will bet 15 euros on each sugested bet.

Are all the sugested bet in the tab 'top bets of the week' ?

What do you recommend me to do if i lose ?

You can also try martingale approach, when in case you lose you increase stake amount in order to cover losses. E.g. if you made 10 bets with 1 stake which recorded a loss of -2€, and you have another 10 games coming, you should increase bet amount on next 10 games to cover losses of 2€.

The amount you should add to your initial stake depends on the loss amount and an average expected profit on the next 10 games. E.g. if we expect around 30% of profit on next 10 games, in order to cover 2€ of losses you need to increase total bet amount by 2€ / 0.3 = 6.7€. So your per game stake will be 1€ + 6.7€ / 10 = 1.67€.

Of course it's the most simple way of increasing stake, you can also adjust stake amount according to the odds value or predicted probability, but IMO it make the process much more complicated, while it doesn't increase profit significantly in long term.

And you always should understand and remember about the risk of martingale strategy. There is always some chance of long losing streak, and in this case your stake will be growing exponentially from step to step. So if you don't have enough money to cover all previous losses you can lose all money you have.

Added 8 minutes later:

#555 legends71:

what method do you recommend me to use with small bankroll ?

I recommend to use the same strategy, flat betting. The most simple and safe.

You can try some kind of system or accumulator with small bankroll, you can always balance between expected profit and chance of win. E.g. you can create accumulator ticket with a total odds of 20.00, but the chance of winning is just 6%, or accumulator with an odds of 5.00 and chance of 24% But in long term you will get the same +20% of profit.


This post was edited by Eugene (2014-09-01 08:54, 8 years ago)




 


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