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Betting strategies

Started by parazitu1899 - January 13, 2015


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#1 parazitu1899


5 Posts

2015-01-13 15:37

Hey guys,

I will start with footbe today, but not sure how to use it. How many games you play per week?

In the past I used to play 6-12 picks per week (maximum combination of 2 games or singel) with odds around 2-2.70

What about your bankroll? You bet on every pick for example € 10,-? (12 picks would be €120,-) 

I used to play this way ... 5-10% of my money I have on my betting account. For example if I have € 100,- and my frist pick is played with 10% --> 10€ 

Next pick was played with 7% from 90€ ---> € 6,30 ... and so on. 

What you think about it? - Do you ever play 2 games on one pick or only single?

Greetings :)




#2 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-01-15 08:52

We recommend to play every bet we propose (it's around 60-70 games per round) based on confirmed lineups. The most reliable way is to follow simple flat betting strategy splitting your bankroll among max recommendations we have per a single round (currently it's 70 during week-end). E.g. if you have $1000 bankroll you stake should be $1000 / 70 = $14.

I do not recommend play 2 games on one pick or any accumulator stuff. Sometimes systems proposed by the Ticket Wizard based on confirmed lineups show really good results. But it's a different thing and shouldn't substitute common flat-betting strategy.




#3 parazitu1899


5 Posts

2015-01-15 18:12

Thank you for your replay ... I never used to play flat bets and never used to play that many games. (at least until yet sucessfull - not perfect - but at least allways +)

What about the idea to pick out 6-10 games and use the Kelly method?

For example:

Pick 1: Odd: 1.85 - 75% prediction

Pick 2: Odd: 1.33 - 88% prediction

Pick 3: Odd: 3.80 - 40% prediction

Pick 4: Odd: 2.55 - 65% prediction 

Pick 5: Odd: 3.30 - 44% prediction 

Pick 6: Odd: 1.80 - 79% prediction

Would be a total stake of 19,82% of your total bankroll ($ 1000) splitted into

1    3.9247% - $ 39,25
2    5.0012% - $ 50,01
3    1.0683% - $ 10,68
4    3.4509% - $ 34,50
5    1.1457% - $ 11,45
6    5.2295% - $ 52,30




#4 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-01-16 22:04

Based on our suggestions history Kelly approach doesn't really improve the results while makes the betting process much more complicated.

We attach excel file with complete suggestions history in the end of every weekly report, you can test how your strategy works.




#5 parazitu1899


5 Posts

2015-01-17 10:21

Ok - thank you Eugene.

Anyway a great tool you've built, even if it's not fully done yet. 




#6 Radimson


46 Posts

2015-01-17 13:25

#885 Eugene:

Based on our suggestions history Kelly approach doesn't really improve the results while makes the betting process much more complicated.

We attach excel file with complete suggestions history in the end of every weekly report, you can test how your strategy works.

You are right Eugene. I've tested it myself. It is more complicated but with a good spreadsheet no problem. However as you said Kelly does not improve the results. Instead I use percentage stakes with moving bank. What is your explanation regarding Kelly not really working with recommendations? It keeps me wonder.




#7 parazitu1899


5 Posts

2015-01-19 12:18

#887 Radimson:
#885 Eugene:

Based on our suggestions history Kelly approach doesn't really improve the results while makes the betting process much more complicated.

We attach excel file with complete suggestions history in the end of every weekly report, you can test how your strategy works.

You are right Eugene. I've tested it myself. It is more complicated but with a good spreadsheet no problem. However as you said Kelly does not improve the results. Instead I use percentage stakes with moving bank. What is your explanation regarding Kelly not really working with recommendations? It keeps me wonder.

Worked for me well the last 2 months as well. But it's something everyone has to do by hisself. Flat stakes is easy to use and working. Not everyone is able to use Kelly I think 




#8 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-01-19 20:40

#887 Radimson:

You are right Eugene. I've tested it myself. It is more complicated but with a good spreadsheet no problem. However as you said Kelly does not improve the results. Instead I use percentage stakes with moving bank. What is your explanation regarding Kelly not really working with recommendations? It keeps me wonder.

I think the problem that it's quite difficult to take into account some factors from statistical point of view, like physical condition, motivation in particular game etc. But bookies take into account these factors as well, since their estimates based on experts opinion as well. So if we have significant difference between our prediction and the one bookies have, that not always means our estimate is more accurate, probably we don't take into account some key-factor.

Anyway, it needs further investigation, we're trying to figure it out.




#9 Radimson


46 Posts

2015-01-19 22:24

#891 Eugene:
#887 Radimson:

You are right Eugene. I've tested it myself. It is more complicated but with a good spreadsheet no problem. However as you said Kelly does not improve the results. Instead I use percentage stakes with moving bank. What is your explanation regarding Kelly not really working with recommendations? It keeps me wonder.

I think the problem that it's quite difficult to take into account some factors from statistical point of view, like physical condition, motivation in particular game etc. But bookies take into account these factors as well, since their estimates based on experts opinion as well. So if we have significant difference between our prediction and the one bookies have, that not always means our estimate is more accurate, probably we don't take into account some key-factor.

Anyway, it needs further investigation, we're trying to figure it out.

I also noticed that bets with high overlay generate high losses. Probably another point to focus on. I would also suggest you would record results only with pinnacle, sbobet and exchanges (matchbook, betfair...). I also use smarkets. The problem with soft bookies is that they limit your account after some time and therefore are useless. From the start of this year I record the reference odds and the odds I am able to get. I will post the results at the end of the season. Otherwise the results look very nice, keep up the good work guys.




#10 gabrijel


57 Posts

2015-08-02 20:16

Hi Eugene and all Footbe users ! 

I have just one question or maybe suggestion if someone had any potentionally good solution ! 

Unfortunately I do not have stats and time to calculate all that things , but I wonder to know how much is percentage of losing bets against winning bets , after the match went into injury time, if someone guided stats. Today,  was good day about injury time ( Metalist - Oleksandriya...draw ) , but last year we lose so much bets because of goals in injury time. 

Does anyone have good any good solution for this ˝ problem ˝ ? 

Thanks

By the way, it was really good predictions for this weekend ( shame for Odessa-Dynamo Kiev.... first goal almost in injury time....lol )

 

Added 3 minutes later:

#894 Radimson:
#891 Eugene:
#887 Radimson:

You are right Eugene. I've tested it myself. It is more complicated but with a good spreadsheet no problem. However as you said Kelly does not improve the results. Instead I use percentage stakes with moving bank. What is your explanation regarding Kelly not really working with recommendations? It keeps me wonder.

I think the problem that it's quite difficult to take into account some factors from statistical point of view, like physical condition, motivation in particular game etc. But bookies take into account these factors as well, since their estimates based on experts opinion as well. So if we have significant difference between our prediction and the one bookies have, that not always means our estimate is more accurate, probably we don't take into account some key-factor.

Anyway, it needs further investigation, we're trying to figure it out.

I also noticed that bets with high overlay generate high losses. Probably another point to focus on. I would also suggest you would record results only with pinnacle, sbobet and exchanges (matchbook, betfair...). I also use smarkets. The problem with soft bookies is that they limit your account after some time and therefore are useless. From the start of this year I record the reference odds and the odds I am able to get. I will post the results at the end of the season. Otherwise the results look very nice, keep up the good work guys.

Hi Radimson ! 

Do you maybe have records of only pinnacle,SBO and exchanges ? 

Thanks

 




#11 Radimson


46 Posts

2015-08-03 06:53

Hi Gabrijel,

unfortunatelly I don't. I was recoding my results for all bookies. I stopped after about 2 months because I didn't have time to do that by then. In these 2 months my result were 0,1% better than those recorded by footbe.

As to injury time goals. I am 100% sure that in the long run these will even out. It is quite normal that you percieve that we lost more last year from stoppage time goals than we won. But that is just because humans experience losses more havily than wins.




#12 gabrijel


57 Posts

2015-08-03 12:09

#1171 Radimson:

Hi Gabrijel,

unfortunatelly I don't. I was recoding my results for all bookies. I stopped after about 2 months because I didn't have time to do that by then. In these 2 months my result were 0,1% better than those recorded by footbe.

As to injury time goals. I am 100% sure that in the long run these will even out. It is quite normal that you percieve that we lost more last year from stoppage time goals than we won. But that is just because humans experience losses more havily than wins.

 

Hi Radimson and thanks for reply !

Yes , I can agree with your conclusion of injury time goals ! But I am very mad after almost winning bet fall for just few seconds, especially if I watch game on live streaming. I was thinking how to lay that certain matches that are on risk to be non-profit , but when you have 20-30 matches that begin at the same time it is very difficult to track all this things. I remember that last year I was in same cases saved my stake, also there was few uneccesary attemps to save stake, because the matches finished with no gol in injury time. We can save with low stakes all initail stake because of big odds in injury time, so that is why I am interested in win/loss percentage in injury time...

 

 




#13 Radimson


46 Posts

2015-08-03 16:47

I personally stopped watching and tracking bets I place until the end of the day. In the evening or the following morning I put all the results into my spreadsheet and that's it. It makes my life much easier not checking the score ;-)

Hi Radimson and thanks for reply !

Yes , I can agree with your conclusion of injury time goals ! But I am very mad after almost winning bet fall for just few seconds, especially if I watch game on live streaming. I was thinking how to lay that certain matches that are on risk to be non-profit , but when you have 20-30 matches that begin at the same time it is very difficult to track all this things. I remember that last year I was in same cases saved my stake, also there was few uneccesary attemps to save stake, because the matches finished with no gol in injury time. We can save with low stakes all initail stake because of big odds in injury time, so that is why I am interested in win/loss percentage in injury time...

 




#14 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-08-05 06:47

Hi, I agree with Radimson, injury time goals don't affect long-term profit. That's just human psychology - last minutes goals which fail your bets are more noticable than those bringing wins )

Btw, regarding odds value. Indeed higher odds provide with higher profit in long-term, so in current season we increase min odd margin a little bit, so average odds value of our suggestion is expected to be significantly higher (~3.1-3.2).

It will decrease number of our recommendations per a single league a little bit, but we expect around the same 70 bets in total per complete round with 2 new leagues added: Turkey and Greece.


This post was edited by Eugene (2015-08-05 06:52, 4 years ago)




#15 Radimson


46 Posts

2015-08-05 09:04

That is good news Eugene. Low odds bets didn't generate much profit all in all. How is it going with the web app btw?




 


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