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First impressions

Started by unterueber - February 16, 2015


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#1 unterueber


2 Posts

2015-02-16 10:16

Hello,

I've been with Footbe for three weeks now, I've tested, or am still testing, various other predictions softwares, whose name I could mention here without being detrimental to Footbe, since they do not compare to Footbe.

So, my first impressions are positive on the whole. What I was told by support before subscribing turned out to be true: one does have to stay in front of one's computer the whole day on week-ends to be able to enjoy the software to its full, since only recommendations that still show within 30-15 minutes before kick off count and should be bet on. Here comes my first question: is it feasible to set a more definite timeline? Indeed, the first day I used Footbe's recommandations, a Championship match involving Wigan was green-squared X 20 minutes before kick off, I bet on it, only to find out 3 minutes later that it was gone from the page. What's worse, X was not the end result. Was this a mistake, or could it happen again in the future? If so, it could impact drammatically the ROI.

Besides, a given recommendation may change completely from the moment it was posted to the moment it is actually squared. This is disconcerting, but, of course, completely acceptable. Here comes my second question: is this radical change due only to a change on the team line up?

I'm impressed with the fact that Footbe is a project that is thought through, and has a long-term vision. I understand that the Beta Test is a test of a purely technical order. Is it so, or is it also that you are stil testing your betting method(s)?  No matter how well-planed, a venture of this kind can only last as long as an effective betting method exists.

How many leagues do you plan to introduce? This leads me to a fourth question. From the number of recommendations you post every week, it is clear you are fully aware that betting involves 'feeding' punters with a certain regular amount of bets, as opposed to some 'tipsters' who will deliver only 5 or 6 tips a month. Psychologically, it is important to know that, if you lose your first or two first bets with a 'tipster', or a predictions software, you won't have to wait for a week or more to get a third tip, or recommendation. So my fourth question is: what is your plan for the Summer season, especially for a month like July,, or even June ? If your reply is that you don't have any, that's fine with me, as it's better to wait for the right moment to make a recommendation, instead of 'feeding' punters with recommendations at any cost. 

Some minor leagues still operate in June or even July. Do you plan to eventually introduce one or two of these leagues? It seems that bookmakers are not as confortable with some of these minor leagues as they are with major ones, when it comes to set odds. If this is true, it could be an opportunity, provided, of course, that it is supported by an effective betting method.

Thank you in advance for your reply.

 

 




#2 Stam


48 Posts

2015-02-16 20:05

Thanks for the kind words and the elaborate post. 

Recommendations become final once lineups are confirmed (usually 30-60 minutes before kick-off). In some rare cases we have experienced data inconsistencies with our provider, but it happened less than a handful of times over a whole season. 

Depending on the lineup changes (expected vs announced) a recommendation can emerge or go away. 

The beta status is because we want to make sure that our results are consistent over time (and they have been since the beginning of last season). We have experimented with different approaches over time (especially during the summer of 2014). We feel our current 100% statistically-based formula (adaptated to each league) works well since it generates profit consistently in the long-term. However, we always keep an open eye for further improvements. 

Our immediate plan for leagues to add next is clear. We intend to add Turkish Super Lig within the next 2 months and Greek Superleague possibly during the summer. In the meantime we are focused on producing a mobile app (for iOS at first) as we feel this will radically help spread the word of our software. 

We don't currently have a plan to add any minor leagues which are being played during the off-season. However, we do not charge the months without matches for the leagues we do cover. We believe this to be the fair thing to do. 

I hope I've answered all questions sufficiently, but I expect Eugene might leave a reply for you as well. 




#3 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-02-17 10:35

unterueber,

We have completely dynamic system. Our recommendations based on the Bet Value calculated as Probability x Odds. So if either Probability or Odd value changes it leads to change in bet value, and sometimes leads to change in recommendations as well.

Probability is changed when lineups are confirmed (if there are few changes in lineups). Odds don't change so drastically usually, there are maybe max 3-4 games per week like this, when recommendation changes after lineups announced and recommended bet posted to History area. It's expected and completely complies with our approach. It means that due to significant increase of odd value another event is considered more profitable than the initial one. But not always this change leads to the winning result.

Anyway, it doesn't affect our efficiency in long term. We recommend to bet once lineups are confirmed and suggestion is added to history. In this case your efficiency will be the same we report, and based on our experience you will receive slightly better results in long term.

Added 3 minutes later:

Beta is related to long-term testing of our statistical models and strategy as well. We're using footbe for 1.5 years already, and during this season we just adding more leagues and do not make significant changes in the strategy as we did last season while we've been seeking the most reliable way to place bets.

Last season we had a couple of periods with negative results, this season results are much more stable. Also we added few leagues which increased total number of matches proposed every week. Our approach is 100% statistically based, so we recommend to bet on every game we propose (it's around 65-80 games per week). Only in this case you can expect more or less stable results in terms of profitability. Proposing just few tips per week it's not what we're looking for, since there is quite decent chance you will lose all your bets.

You should understand that from statistical point of view you need to perform at least few hundreds of tries in order to prove suggested strategy. So the more bets you place - the more reliable results you get.

In general this season results slightly better (accumulated ROI for a season is +231% currently in terms of ROI, final result of season 13/14 was +237%), but as I said we achieved higher stability (decreased volatility significantly). Until september we expect to implement 2-3 leagues more, which will make our results even more stable. And if our results will remain stable in terms of ROI for 3rd season as well, we will go final and finish our beta phase. Of course, price policy will be reconsidered as well.

Added 1 minute later:

We're considering implementing 'Summer' leagues later (like Brazilian Serie A, MLS, Australian or Japanese leagues). But it's quite difficult to manage them due to time zone difference. So it's not our top priority.

Added 0 ms later:

We're considering implementing 'Summer' leagues later (like Brazilian Serie A or MLS). But it's quite difficult to manage them due to time zone difference. So it's not our top priority.

Currently we're working on Turkish Super Lig, then we will be working on Greek Superleague.


This post was edited by Eugene (2015-02-17 10:57, 4 years ago)




#4 unterueber


2 Posts

2015-02-18 14:47

Thank you both of you for the detailed replies.

The average punter has stats. Bookmakers have stats, and more effective means to analyse them. Would you say Footbe can compete with bookmakers in terms of comprehensiveness of statistics, or is it that your excellent results are mainly due, at the end of the day, to your ability to chose the right games according to the 'value bet' criterion ?
Stability is based on regularity. I’ve just had a look again at week results. What caught my attention is the fact that there have been only three consecutive weeks in the red so far, with impressing 7 consecutive weeks in the green. This means that, no matter at what point in time someone subscribed, he’s in currently profit, provided he placed all recommended bets. With respect to the three consecutive weeks in red, do you have regrets, that is, the impression that a few mistakes may have been made, or would you say that these are imponderables ?




#5 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-02-19 11:10

#929 unterueber:
Thank you both of you for the detailed replies.

The average punter has stats. Bookmakers have stats, and more effective means to analyse them. Would you say Footbe can compete with bookmakers in terms of comprehensiveness of statistics, or is it that your excellent results are mainly due, at the end of the day, to your ability to chose the right games according to the 'value bet' criterion ?
Stability is based on regularity. I’ve just had a look again at week results. What caught my attention is the fact that there have been only three consecutive weeks in the red so far, with impressing 7 consecutive weeks in the green. This means that, no matter at what point in time someone subscribed, he’s in currently profit, provided he placed all recommended bets. With respect to the three consecutive weeks in red, do you have regrets, that is, the impression that a few mistakes may have been made, or would you say that these are imponderables ?

 

I'd like to point that we do not choose anything, we have 100% statistically based system. That's why I'm sure about reliability of our predictions in terms of long-term profit. I believe since the launch we prove that we're able to overperform bookmakers using our statistical engine.

Regarding stability of our results. Last year we had around 9% yield, this year yield is over 10%. How our series looks depends on the number of events we play every week. If we played 200-300 events per week, the chance we would have all weeks positive would be much higher. And it's inappropriate calculating the number of positive/negative streaks, the only profit matters. The worst series we had in current season was during weeks #13-18, when we had the only positive week out of 6. Anyway, successful week generated 25.2 points, while 5 negative generated -15.4 all together. So average yield of these 6 weeks period is +2.25%, which is not bad.

Take a look on monthly statistics, the only 'negative' month (in fact it's close to zero, just -2.4 points based on 255 recommendations) is December. Since then our results are getting better. Similar trend we had last season.

So what I'm trying to say that red weeks is not a matter of our 'mistakes'. That's specifics of our statistical models and strategy. And it's absolutely expected.


This post was edited by Eugene (2015-02-19 11:37, 4 years ago)




#6 Mistake


15 Posts

2015-02-28 11:49

the only think missing is the alert mail. when predictions are definite the program should send an email!

because i cant stay in front a pc for all the day...it's is for me the best "bug"






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