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Results changing???

Started by adamwalker22 - February 28, 2015


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#1 adamwalker22


8 Posts

2015-02-28 17:18

Iv just noticed that on that #week 29 had forest to win and won now i was putting the bets on as soon as the formations come out which had forest to draw which i selected and lost... Why is this? and what factors where different from the history to my personal ticket?

 

 




#2 gabrijel


57 Posts

2015-02-28 17:38

#955 adamwalker22:

Iv just noticed that on that #week 29 had forest to win and won now i was putting the bets on as soon as the formations come out which had forest to draw which i selected and lost... Why is this? and what factors where different from the history to my personal ticket?

Unfortunatelly the same case with me! 

This is not correct! 

It is said that in statistics will enter the first pick that was published after confirmation lineups. So the first pick was Reading-Nottingham draw and now is Nottinghsm to win ? How ?

 

 

 




#3 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-03-01 06:55

Sometimes there is tiny edge in odds value, and even insignificant change can influence our recommendation. In this game for a few minutes odds for Draw dropped under 3.6, draw rank changed from B to D, and final recommendation was Forest win. At this moment recommendation was added to history ticket. Then matchbook odds increased and rank for draw changed to B.

E.g. based on Pinnacle odds only Forest win would be suggested:

Despite most of the time on the prediction screen Draw was available as recommended bet, at the time we added it to the history ticket there was Forest win. It happens with 1-2 games every week since odds change quite significantly after lineups announcement. E.g. last week most of the time Draw was suggested in Augsburg - Bayer game, and final score is 2-2, but at the time we added it to the history Augsburg win was recommended. Such inconsitencies doesn't affect our result in long-term. It's a rare occasion, and some time we win, another we lose. But we never change our results in the history. When there is such insignificant difference there is no 'correct' suggestion, this just means that the difference between these 2 bets insignificant from the statistical point of view.

I'd recommend to check our history before placing bets.

Added 52 minutes later:

Ok, guys, we've checked it carefully and found the problem.

If you check our match preview report (click on the icon in match history), you will see that indeed there was B rank for Draw, while the final suggestion was on Nottingham Forest win:

The problem is not related to change of odds. The problem is that Rank is calculated without taking into account commission on such bookies as Matchbook, betfair, BetDAQ etc. Matchbook has 1% commission on winning amount, so the net value (real value) for this event not 3.60 but 3.57. And based on the 3.57 value draw rank changes from B to D. When our final suggestion (which is reported in the history, and you see it in match preview and in the Suggested Bet box) takes into account commission.

So Matchbook rank here calculated incorrectly, and final recommendation is Forest win.

Fixed it now, app will be updated to build 1231 soon. Sorry for an inconvenience.


This post was edited by Eugene (2015-03-01 08:03, 4 years ago)




#4 gabrijel


57 Posts

2015-03-01 08:52

Thanks for reply Eugene. We are already talking about this here on the forum about this ˝problem˝ but in another topic.

The same ˝problem˝ was yesterday night again with Chievo-Milan and unfornatelly I was again picked false prediction( Chievo to win was my picks few minutes before start of game and then in history I saw games was picked for draw.

I know that small differences can drastically affect the final prediction, but it's also very affect to my final ROI. Because if I have every week 1-2 false pick in comparison with your correct picks that it greatly affects the final balance.

I hope now to see improvement of this problem, the rest is all masterfully and highly commendable.

Thanks and bye Eugene!

 




#5 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-03-01 09:52

Gabriel, we add our recommendation once lineups are announced. They can change up till game kicks off, but we place it as soon as lineups confirmed. Based on the most common bookies (Pinnacle, Marathon, Matchbook etc) draw was recommended for the game Chievo - Milan, and nothing could affect this recommendation.

Again, Forest issue is resolved now. Regarding other events - it can't affect ROI significantly, since this differences change BOTH ways, one bet is won, and another lost. I just recommend to follow our history.

We do not have 1-2 'correct' picks every weeks which fails with you. We can have 1-2 differences which doesn't affect long-term ROI.




#6 gabrijel


57 Posts

2015-03-01 10:49

Perhaps it is partly my fault because I did not look at prediction in your history, so I will now always look before concluding bets in history! Thank you very much for the information.
Unfortunately until a few weeks ago, I did not use the software at full  (only occasionally), so in the last two weeks this changes was happened 3 times and each times I loosed bet. That's why I'm a little badly judged. The important thing is, that I now know , how to have identical results to yours, who are really phenomenal.
Thank you once again Eugene !




#7 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-03-01 11:02

No problem, glad to help!






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