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show off your profits here

Started by adamwalker22 - March 08, 2015


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#1 adamwalker22


8 Posts

2015-03-08 22:05

As the titles says just abit of fun really... 

 

I know week isnt over but... 

soo week #30 soo far has been a nightmare

soo far iv:

placed 44 bets (missed 12)

made 44.3% loss

total loss £306

total bet 705

win rate 26.1%

 

week #31

 

44 bets (missed 21)

24% loss

total loss £50

Total bet 220

win rate 35.7

 

 


This post was edited by adamwalker22 (2015-03-15 18:15, 6 years ago)




#2 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-03-09 20:46

Unfortunately, week #30 is the worst week ever since our launch. It's obvious we have a negative streak right now similar to the one we had year ago. In previous season we had 4 consecutive negative weeks in a row in March generating losses of -35.2 points based on 233 recommendations, but then our results stabilized and we had 7 positive weeks streak generated +49 points. So we expect improvement of our results soon.

Our statistical models are based solely on the team/player performance stats, and do not take into account such factors as morale or physical condition. We think that this is the problem why we experience negative results streaks in October-November and March this season again. We will take deep investigation of the problem in Summer, and will try to include physical condition to our models.




#3 adamwalker22


8 Posts

2015-03-10 20:35

#1003 Eugene:

Unfortunately, week #30 is the worst week ever since our launch. It's obvious we have a negative streak right now similar to the one we had year ago. In previous season we had 4 consecutive negative weeks in a row in March generating losses of -35.2 points based on 233 recommendations, but then our results stabilized and we had 7 positive weeks streak generated +49 points. So we expect improvement of our results soon.

Our statistical models are based solely on the team/player performance stats, and do not take into account such factors as morale or physical condition. We think that this is the problem why we experience negative results streaks in October-November and March this season again. We will take deep investigation of the problem in Summer, and will try to include physical condition to our models.

No worries mate im pretty confident ill win that money back :) 

 

 




#4 Eugene


470 Posts

2015-03-10 20:45

I hope so, at least last season we had same patterns in October-November and March.




#5 adamwalker22


8 Posts

2015-03-10 21:29

#1006 Eugene:
I hope so, at least last season we had same patterns in October-November and March.

i thought march might be a bad month to be fair as march is generally the "crunch" part of the season some teams become strong and others lose there bottle which leads to un predictable results 




#6 Radimson


46 Posts

2015-03-10 22:18

I actually think there is not enough data for these conclusions. Comparing just two seasons is not relevant in my opinion. The "crysis" started two weeks earlier last season and the pattern in October-November seems to me quite different too. I don't think we can say that this is not just variance.




#7 Stam


48 Posts

2015-03-11 06:32

#1008 Radimson:

I actually think there is not enough data for these conclusions. Comparing just two seasons is not relevant in my opinion. The "crysis" started two weeks earlier last season and the pattern in October-November seems to me quite different too. I don't think we can say that this is not just variance.

I think the pattern has to do with certain occasions. I mean in November we have break in domestic leagues for national teams qualification rounds, as well as important group stage matches for teams competing in Champions League and Europa League. And in March we have crucial games which can be the turning point for a title race or a relegation battle. Some teams are more motivated than others because a whole season is on the line, and in that sense we encounter unpredictable results. Well, that is just my personal opinion though.




#8 Radimson


46 Posts

2015-03-11 11:58

#1009 Stam:

I think the pattern has to do with certain occasions. I mean in November we have break in domestic leagues for national teams qualification rounds, as well as important group stage matches for teams competing in Champions League and Europa League. And in March we have crucial games which can be the turning point for a title race or a relegation battle. Some teams are more motivated than others because a whole season is on the line, and in that sense we encounter unpredictable results. Well, that is just my personal opinion though.

It could be the case but I think it is going to need more seasons before making any conclusions. But as Eugene mentioned it would by good to include motivation factors into the model as some teams loose their motivation towards the end of the season when e.g. they are sure of not relegating and yet have no chance to get european cups spot.


This post was edited by Stam (2015-03-16 00:17, 6 years ago)




#9 Stam


48 Posts

2015-03-11 13:26

Agreed. We're already investigating about possible ways of assessing physical condition and morale. While it might be really hard to assess morale, it should be possible to come up with a model for physical condition; and this is something Eugene will be actively looking to implement.




#10 Stam


48 Posts

2015-03-14 12:14

#30 was an unlucky week. We had 6 recommendations that failed in stoppage time, which could have earned us 15.7 points.

Derby v Birmingham was 2-0 until 90+3, but the visitors managed to score 2 goals before the final whistle (Recommendation: 1).
Hellas Verona equalized at 90+5 to get away with the draw at San Siro (Recommendation: 1).
Getafe snatched the away win over Cordoba by scoring at 90+2 (Recommendation: X).
Heracles equalized at 90+4 against Vitesse (Recommendation: 2).
Bordeax scored at 90+5 to steal the away win over Caen (Recommendation: X).
Blackburn scored at 90+4 at home over Bolton (Recommendation: X).

On the other hand, there was no recommendation won in the last minutes.




#11 gabrijel


57 Posts

2015-03-15 10:01

#1034 Stam:

#30 was an unlucky week. We had 6 recommendations that failed in stoppage time, which could have earned us 15.7 points.

Derby v Birmingham was 2-0 until 90+3, but the visitors managed to score 2 goals before the final whistle (Recommendation: 1).
Hellas Verona equalized at 90+5 to get away with the draw at San Siro (Recommendation: 1).
Getafe snatched the away win over Cordoba by scoring at 90+2 (Recommendation: X).
Heracles equalized at 90+4 against Vitesse (Recommendation: 2).
Bordeax scored at 90+5 to steal the away win over Caen (Recommendation: X).
Blackburn scored at 90+4 at home over Bolton (Recommendation: X).

On the other hand, there was no recommendation won in the last minutes.

just to add: Empoli equalized 90+3 against Cagliari ( Recommendiation 1) 




#12 adamwalker22


8 Posts

2015-03-15 19:53

#1038 gabrijel:

just to add: Empoli equalized 90+3 against Cagliari ( Recommendiation 1)

was that not #31 ?


This post was edited by Stam (2015-03-16 00:19, 6 years ago)




#13 gabrijel


57 Posts

2015-03-15 20:05

#1047 adamwalker22:

was that not #31 ?

yes that was match of week 31 , but the conclusion is that the black series against us continues, unfortunatelly ! OMG , where is the end !!! 

add : T. Moskow-Zenith- T .Moskow equalized at 90+1 against Zenit ( recommendation 2 )


This post was edited by Stam (2015-03-16 00:19, 6 years ago)




#14 adamwalker22


8 Posts

2015-03-16 21:44

#1048 gabrijel:
#1047 adamwalker22:

was that not #31 ?

yes that was match of week 31 , but the conclusion is that the black series against us continues, unfortunatelly ! OMG , where is the end !!! 

add : T. Moskow-Zenith- T .Moskow equalized at 90+1 against Zenit ( recommendation 2 )

Im sorry but i think its my fault!

Iv been doing this for 2 weeks now and both weeks just happen to be the worst weeks in footbe history lol maybe i should stop?




#15 Joschka


29 Posts

2015-03-16 22:00

This month I'm at 146 recommended 1x2 bets with a ROI of -30% and 43 lost units.




 


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